Food crisis in the Sahel

UN-OCHA map of vulnerability to food insecurity in the Sahel.

ReliefWeb has a series of backgrounders, assessment reports and maps to explain the malnutrition and food crisis in the Sahel. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs has said that the Sahel is characterised by long standing chronic food insecurity and malnutrition, poverty and extreme vulnerability to drought. “The localised deficit recorded for the agropastoral season 2011-12 and increasing cereals prices in Mali and Niger could bring millions of people at risk of food insecurity,” said the UN-OCHA briefing.

Throughout the Sahel, acute malnutrition in children reaches its annual peak during the hunger season. Children under two years of age have the highest risk of becoming sick or dying during this period. Malnutrition is caused by inadequate food quality and quantity, inadequate care, as well as unhealthy household environment and lack of health services.

The prevalence of global acute malnutrition met or exceeded the critical threshold of 10% in all of the surveys conducted in the hunger season of 2011 (from May to August). If food security significantly deteriorates in 2012, the nutrition conditions for children could surpass emergency levels throughout the Sahel region.

Affected countries are: Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Gambia (the), Mali, Mauritania, Niger (the), Nigeria and Senegal.

Food insecurity and malnutrition chronically affect a significant part of the Sahel population. However, several events came in 2011 which exacerbate this vulnerability:

1. In 2011 many parts of the region received late and poorly distributed rains, resulting in average harvests and serious severe shortfall in some areas. Consequently, the Government of Niger as an example has estimated that the 2011 agro pastoral season will record a deficit of 519,600 tons of cereals and of over ten million tons of fodder for livestock.
2. In Mauritania, authorities expect a decrease of more than 75% of the agriculture production and a strong fodder deficit.
3. In areas where harvests are weak, households will run out of food stocks faster than usual and will be forced to rely on markets for supplies, contributing to maintaining the already high prices at the same level.

UN-OCHA map of expected cases of severe acute malnutrition in the Sahel.

Furthermore, the purchasing power of the most vulnerable populations is likely to deteriorate. In addition the lean season is estimated to begin earlier than usual, probably as early as January 2012 in Chad, two months in advance. As the situation gets worse by spring 2012, there will be an increase of infant acute malnutrition, already beyond emergency thresholds in four wilayas in southwestern Mauritania.

Several countries in the Sahel have already announced measures taken to curb the negative effects of the food insecurity and malnutrition on vulnerable populations; who have not had enough time to recover from the 2009-10 crisis, despite the good harvest registered last year. Three countries (Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Mali) have also requested for assistance from the humanitarian community. In late November, the United Nations Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF), administered by OCHA, allocated US$ 6 million to three organisations in Niger – the World Food Program, UNICEF and the Food and Agriculture Organization – for emergency operations to fight food insecurity and malnutrition.

According to a ‘Humanitarian Dashboard – Sahel’ dated 12 January 2012 released by UN-OCHA, early indicators point to a likely food crisis in localised areas of the Sahel in 2012, with people at particularly high risk in Mauritania, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, Chad, and localized areas of Senegal. These are:

1. Acute food insecurity already noted in southeastern Mauritania.
2. Deficits in 2011, in agro-pastoral production led to higher market prices, resulting in an earlier than usual need for food aid.
3. Resilience to food insecurity is low in most vulnerable groups.
4. High poverty level in Sahel (51%) impacting on food accessibility due to high prices.

Floodwaters surround Bangkok

Update 2011-10-26 – Bangkok is braced for its zero hour which will be 0730 local time on 27 October 2011. That is when a high tide will coincide with a new surge of water coming down the Chao Phraya from central Thailand.

People wade through a flooded street in Bangkok October 25, 2011. Photo: AlertNet / Reuters / Sukree Sukplang

Reuters Alertnet has reported that floods swamped a new area of Thailand’s capital on Wednesday as some shops rationed food and Bangkok’s governor warned of “massive water” on the way that could put many parts of the sprawling city in danger by the end of the week. Large-scale evacuation was underway in Bang Phlad, a riverside area some way from Bangkok’s inundated northern districts, as floods hit the capital on a second front, deepening anxiety in the city of 12 million people, many of whom were expected to flee before a special five-day holiday.

“Now we’re at a critical moment, we need to monitor the situation closely from 28-31 October, when many areas might be critical,” Bangkok Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra told reporters on Wednesday. “Massive water is coming.” Sukhumbhand said 90 percent of the northern Don Muang district was under water and Bang Phlad was in a critical situation. Fourteen city districts were threatened by floods and two more could be hit on Thursday, he said.

Bangkok residents scrambled to stock up on food, but bottled water was nowhere to be seen and some shops restricted customers to small quantities of food to prevent hoarding. Bus stations were packed as thousands prepared to leave the city. With high tide approaching in the Gulf of Thailand, Seri Supharatid, director of Rangsit University’s Centre on Climate Change and Disaster, said the city’s fate rested with river dykes holding.

“In the worst-case scenario, if all the dykes break, all parts of Bangkok would be more or less flooded,” Seri said. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, who said two weeks ago that Bangkok was likely to escape the floodwaters, said on Wednesday that it could be flooded for as long as a month. “But we shouldn’t face water as high as two or three metres or staying for two or three months as we’ve seen in other provinces,” she told reporters.

Residents talk to a policeman as floods advance into central Bangkok, Thailand, October 26, 2011. Photo: Reuters

The rising tide could complicate efforts to drive water from the swelling Chao Phraya river out to the sea, putting more pressure on a city that accounts for 41 percent of Thailand’s gross domestic product. Three northern districts of Bangkok have been under water since Saturday, with army vehicles driving at a snail’s pace through 1.5 metres of water, ferrying evacuees away on roads shared by cars and boats.

Some people were being evacuated for a second time, with 4,000 sheltering in Don Muang moving to the province of Chon Buri. Evacuees at a university in Pathum Thani province also had to move on as floodwater engulfed the campus. To tackle the flooding, the authorities have pumped an estimated 8 billion cubic metres of water daily through canals and a river around Bangkok’s east and west towards the sea. But the large volume of water flowing through the city remains a concern, with the vast Chao Phraya river at record levels and running past high-end hotels, embassies and the Sathorn and Silom areas of the city’s business district.

Water has engulfed two areas, with levels climbing higher than half a metre in the densely populated Bang Phlad district near to the Chao Phraya and closer to the commercial heart. Overloaded trucks shuttled out evacuees from Bang Phlad, gas stations were inundated and shop owners pulled down shutters and added sandbags to makeshift defence walls. “My shop is damaged. I’ve prepared for this, but it’s not enough — there’s too much water,” said grocery store owner Vichit Pookmaitree. As panic grew, shoppers at a central Bangkok hypermarket run by Big C Supercenter Pcl were being restricted to one packet of rice and one tray of eggs. Toilet paper was also being rationed. Bottled water had run out.

The Voice of America reported that authorities in Thailand are turning to desperate measures as they try to prevent the Chao Phraya River from overflowing its banks and inundating central Bangkok. The Thai navy has deployed a fleet of ships to the Chao Phraya and other rivers, where they are using their propellers to try to speed the flow of water through the city to the sea.

Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said she is no more than 50 percent certain that the city will be spared, despite the navy efforts and constant reinforcement of the embankments. In an address to the nation Tuesday evening, she said that if the embankments fail, the city could be flooded to a depth of 1.5 meters in places. “The flood water levels in Bangkok, due to variation of the plains’ altitude, could range from 10 centimeters to 1.5 meters. We will control the runoff to allow only the least water to enter Bangkok, to flood for the least number of days, and will stop the flow of water in the quickest possible way, by using all the drainage means we have,” said Yingluck.

Update 2011-10-23 – The Chao Phraya River has burst its banks and water levels have risen in some of Bangkok’s northern suburbs.

Despite assurances by Flood Relief Operations Command that the river’s spillover could be drained off, reported by The Associated Press, Thai troops raced to fortify defense walls Sunday to protect two key industrial zones. Bangkok authorities said city residents should brace for more high tides in the coming week, which could cause rivers to back up.

Floodwaters had spilled onto highways north of the capital, including near Bangkok’s second airport in the Don Muang district, the AP reports, adding that the situation was “dire” away from the highways. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said: “Water is coming from different places and headed in the same direction. We’re trying to build walls but there will be some impact on Bangkok.” High tide in the Gulf of Thailand by the end of the week could complicate the situation.

Thailand’s worst flooding in half a century has affected a third of the country and has been bearing down on Bangkok since early last week. Twenty-eight of 77 provinces and 2.46 million people are affected, with water covering an area the size of Kuwait. Yingluck said on Saturday it could take as long as six weeks for the water to subside. Since late July, 356 people have been killed and at least 113,000 moved to more than 1,700 makeshift shelters.

The full force of the flooding has hit central provinces and those on the edge of Bangkok, where water levels have reached as high as three meters, with vehicles completely submerged and some residents believed to be stranded in their homes. The northern Bangkok districts of Don Muang and Lak Si were inundated on Sunday after floodwater spilled out of the Prapa canal. Boats and cars were seen side by side on a main road, with people seen wading through water or boarding trucks for evacuation as water levels were up to two meters in some parts. Thai television showed footage of a two-meter long crocodile caught by authorities in a residential area.

An aerial view of a flooded area in Nonthaburi province October 12, 2011. Photo: Reuters / Sukree Sukplang

Update 20111021 – Thailand battled to protect the capital Bangkok from being swamped by water on Friday, with canals full to the brim after devastating floods across the region that sources in neighboring Myanmar said had killed at least 100 people there. Reuters has reported that after trying to hold the line for a week, the Thai government opened some canals on Thursday to allow water to run through the inner city, carrying the risk of inundating some districts but relieving pressure on dikes.

At least 100 bodies had been found in the low-lying parts of central Myanmar along the Irrawaddy River, with at least 100 more missing after floods and torrential rains since Wednesday, according to a reliable source in Pakokku, about 450 km (280 miles) north of the biggest city, Yangon. The source requested anonymity and cited information provided by a local administration official. Residents contacted by Reuters in Monywa and Kyaukse towns said there was damage to property and crops, but could not confirm casualties.

Villagers built a wooden bridge in a flooded temple complex in Nonthaburi province, on the outskirts of Bangkok October 16, 2011. Photo: Reuters / Chaiwat Subprasom

Government officials in Thailand were not available for comment and state-controlled media made no mention of the rains and floods. The floods have also killed at least 247 in Cambodia and displaced tens of thousands of people. The floods are the worst in Thailand in five decades and have killed at least 342 people since July and devastated industrialized areas to the north of Bangkok.

The crisis is the first real test for politically inexperienced Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, whose government has had to form uneasy alliances with the military and political rivals to coordinate the relief effort. Bangkok’s metropolitan authority is controlled by the opposition Democrat Party, while the military has a frosty relationship with the ruling Puea Thai Party because of its de facto leader and Yingluck’s brother, Thaksin Shinawatra, the self-exiled former premier overthrown by the army in 2006.

The flood problem was building even before she took office in early August and looks set to cost industry more than $3 billion, slashing economic growth this year. The 44-year-old former businesswoman is resisting calls to declare a state of emergency, saying authorities are able to manage.

A man carries his daughter through flooded streets in Pathum Thani province, on the outskirts of Bangkok Oct 18, 2011. Photo: China Daily/Agencies

20111020 – The floods across South-East Asia have hit Thailand particularly hard and floodwaters are now threatening Bangkok, home to more than 9 million people.

The region expects monsoon rains at this time of year, but not of the intensity of the past few weeks, as The Economist has pointed out. Over 270 people have been killed, about 700,000 homes destroyed or damaged and large areas of the central plains region have been inundated.

Prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra has been touring the flooded areas. But her government’s response has been criticised as tardy and ineffective. The longer-term economic consequences of the floods have been estimated by the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC) at as high as 150 billion baht ($4.8 billion), and that total will rise significantly if Bangkok is badly affected. The rice-growing areas of the rural north have been hardest hit; more than 3.4m acres (1.4m hectares) of farmland are already under water.

Residents walk through flooded streets in Pathum Thani province, on the outskirts of Bangkok Oct 18, 2011. Photo: China Daily/Agencies

Here is a set of reports by The Nation, Thailand’s leading English newspaper, which helps explain the calamity:

A close aide to former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra yesterday suggested that the government immediately revise its flood-prevention plan to protect the inner city areas from severe flooding. Sudarat Keyuraphan, in her capacity as an adviser to the government’s Flood Relief Operation Centre (FROC), said her plan calls for releasing floodwater from upstream provinces into Nakhon Nayok and Chachoengsao to the east of Bangkok, and allowing some areas of the city to be flooded. “Bangkok has to accept part of the water in order to help reduce the burden,” Sudarat said. She added that FROC chief Pracha Promnok has agreed to her idea and that she would later raise the matter with Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) situation map of Bangkok floods, 17 October 2011

She warned that the government’s current plan of blocking the floodwater in upstream provinces would only help increase the water pressure. Any leak in the temporary flood walls could lead to severe flooding in Bangkok’s central areas, including the Victory Monument. “We now need to brainstorm to release the 10,000-plus million cubic metres of water into the sea as soon as possible. We can’t allow the water to mass up and attack Bangkok,” the banned politician said.

A woman sells rubber boots in a flooded street in Rangsit near Bangkok Oct 18, 2011. Thailand's cabinet met on Tuesday to discuss the mounting economic cost of floods that have killed 315 people, and residents of Bangkok were told not to drop their guard even if the immediate danger to the capital had passed. Photo: China Daily/Agencies

Kohlak Charoenruk, deputy chairman of the National Disaster Warning Committee, yesterday called on the prime minister to decide whether to allow floodwaters from upstream provinces to naturally pass Bangkok’s Chao Phraya River and canals into the sea. He said that the government’s attempt to keep the massive floodwater in provinces north of Bangkok would only help increase the water pressure. “It’s the nature of water to flow downstream into the sea. When you block a lot of water, it will mass up to become a tsunami and could finally hit Bangkok,” he said. He added that Bangkok is on a natural channel for the water from upstream to flow into the sea.

About 1.2 billion cubic metres of water are expected to sweep around Rangsit Canal. A massive run-off from the North is bearing down on Bangkok faster than expected and should reach Rangsit Canal tonight, Governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra said yesterday.

Cartoon in The Nation expressing the frustration of flood-affected residents with their government. The woman in Burberry boots is prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra.

He said all the sluice gates of Canals 1-12 were opened. The water from submerged Nava Nakorn Industrial Estate would arrive first followed by the water from Rapeepat Canal. The flood is expected to surge into Canal 2 and Hok Wa Canal, the frontline defence of the capital, tomorrow.

Sukhumbhand earlier urged 200 households along Hok Wa Canal to seek shelter at Ritthiyawannalai 2 School, which could accommodate 1,000 people.  He also told residents in seven at-risk districts to move their belongings and electric sockets to higher elevations and prepare for evacuation. The seven districts are Sai Mai, Bang Khen, Khlong Sam Wa, Nong Chok, Min Buri, Lat Krabang and Khan Na Yao. He said 1.2 billion cubic metres of water were expected to sweep over areas around Rangsit Canal, which could handle only 400 million cubic metres. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra said construction of flood barriers along Rangsit-Pathum Thani Road north of Bangkok has almost been completed.

The situation in Nonthaburi’s Bang Bua Thong and Pak Kret districts was critical yesterday, as a massive volume of water suddenly flowed into the municipality area and markets, inundating hundreds of vehicles and causing residents to flee their homes. Most of the six districts in the province were being hit by huge run-offs from provinces to the north such as Ayutthaya and Pathum Thani, said Nonthaburi Governor Wichian Phuttiwinyu.

Thai soldiers try to protect the highway as floods advance into Rangsit near Bangkok Oct 18, 2011. Photo: China Daily/Agencies

“The problem is that we cannot estimate how much water will enter our area. We are familiar with the levels of the Chao Phraya River, but this time it’s very abnormal, as we don’t know when and where it will arrive,” he said. The inundated area in Nonthaburi was expanding to Bang Yai and Bang Kruay districts yesterday.

Much of the province was turned from agricultural land into residential areas during the boom years of the real-estate business. Many areas, notably along the western bank of the Chao Phraya, have been connected by canals, resulting in a speedy flow of water. Bang Bua Thong was in fact first hit last week, but the authorities built barricades to keep water from flowing into municipality areas and markets.

However, the sandbag barrier failed to prevent water breaking through yesterday and a massive volume flowed into the inner part of the district, notably the area near Wat Lahan and Bang Bua Thong Hospital. As of yesterday, almost 100 per cent of Bang Bua Thong district was inundated, said Somchit Chandaen, former chief of the Tambon Bang Bua Thong Administration Organisation. The deepest water was as high as 2.5 metres above ground, he said.

The UN has a number of agencies coordinating flood relief efforts in Thailand. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) told reporters in Geneva that a UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) team was on standby to deploy in the stricken countries if requested. The UN Development Programme (UNDP) offered support to the Thai Government to deal with the floods that have killed more than 280 people and affected more than two million since July. More than 80 per cent of the country’s 76 provinces have been affected, and in excess of 900 industrial plants and farmland inundated.

Residents and a dog make their way through floods as they leave Nava Nakorn industrial estate in Pathum Thani province, suburb of Bangkok Oct 18, 2011. Photo: China Daily/Agencies

The UN has been in regular contact with the authorities, including the Thai Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, and has been monitoring the humanitarian and development impacts of the floods. According to the country’s irrigation authorities, 11 out of the 26 major dams in Thailand currently hold more water than their established capacity, while others are between 82 and 99 per cent full and the excess water needs to be released, which must in turn necessitate more evacuations of people downstream.

UNDP has boosted its capacity to assist the people of Thailand, setting aside both financial and technical emergency resources, and will continue to work with the Government to support the country’s longer-term recovery and rehabilitation. At the weekend, the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, Valerie Amos, warned that the flood disaster in South-East Asia could worsen with river levels still rising and heavy rainfall forecast. Some 700 lives have been lost in Cambodia and Thailand, while in Laos, the Philippines and Viet Nam, homes, crops and vital infrastructure have been destroyed. Millions of people living in low-lying areas remain vulnerable to further destruction, a UNDP spokesperson said.

Food, climate, conflict – all that caused the Horn of Africa refugee crisis

New arrivals from Somalia waiting to be registered at Dagehaley camp, in Dadaab. Photo: Kate Holt/IRIN

IRIN News has reported that about 1,300 Somalis are arriving at the Dadaab refugee camps in northeast Kenya every day. The help they are seeking – refuge from a severe drought and the effects of years of conflict – is being handed out as fast as possible. But in a camp complex that has already been stretched well beyond its limits, the new arrivals need more assistance than can be provided. The nutritional state of older children, as well as under fives, is of concern, but the local Kenyan population is faring little better.

“The number has skyrocketed,” a registration expert with the UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, told IRIN. The official said UNHCR had had to hire more employees, who now work in shifts, to accommodate the rush. The three Dadaab refugee camps – Dagahaley, Ifo and Hagadera – were originally meant to cater for 90,000 refugees, but housed at least 380,000 people, according to UNHCR. Despite the overcrowding, the government of Kenya has yet to allow people to move into a fourth camp, known as Ifo II, which stands empty.

“Water systems, latrines and healthcare facilities are ready to use but are standing idle,” Oxfam said in a statement. Oxfam reported that 60,000 new arrivals were living in basic tents outside the camp boundaries, with limited access to clean water or latrines, risking an outbreak of disease. Those living in these informal settlements are some of the worst-off. In the settlements on the outskirts of Dagahaley camp, 17.5 percent of children between six months and almost five years old are severely malnourished, three times the emergency level, according to Caroline Abu-Sada, a research unit coordinator with Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF).

Newly arrived Somali refugees waiting to be registered at Dagahaley camp, Dadaab in Kenya. Photo: Al Jazeera/EPA

The lack of water in the outskirts was a real concern. Refugees are only able to obtain up to three litres of water a day, 80 percent less than they need according to the Sphere Standards, which are already based on emergency situations. Some are only receiving 500ml for drinking, bathing, washing clothes, and everything else. By comparison, in North America and Japan most people use 350l a day, according to the World Water Council. Water is now being trucked to the camp outskirts by MSF and CARE, but there were previously only 48 taps for 20,000 people. Abu-Sada said diarrhoea was already rampant, along with skin rashes and respiratory infections.

More than 11 million people are estimated to be in need of humanitarian aid across the region, a UN News report has said. Almost 500,000 children in Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya are suffering from imminent, life-threatening severe malnutrition. In addition, over 1.6 million children under the age of five are acutely malnourished, according to UNICEF.

In addition to the thousands of people from Somalia seeking refuge in Ethiopia and Kenya, millions more are living on the brink of extreme poverty and hunger, suffering the consequences of failed rains and the impact of climate change, said the agency. UNICEF has appealed for $31.8 million to ramp up assistance to the Horn of Africa over the next three months, especially for children, who are suffering the brunt of the crisis. It says the most urgent needs include therapeutic feeding, vitamin supplementation, water and sanitation services, child protection measures and immunization.

In Geneva, two UN human rights experts appealed to the global community to take “concerted and urgent” measures to assist the millions who are suffering in the region, warning of large-scale starvation if international intervention is not forthcoming. Shamsul Bari, the Independent Expert on the situation of human rights in Somalia, noted that drastically increasing food prices and continuing conflict and insecurity have caused a huge displacement of the population, with thousands of Somalis fleeing to Ethiopia, Kenya, and Djibouti every day. Bari, who last week visited Somalia and Kenya, said the situation was markedly worse than in March, when he had expressed concerns over the slow response of the humanitarian community to the situation.

The UN Special Rapporteur on the right to food, Olivier De Schutter, said the international community should be prepared for more such droughts. “This crisis looks like a natural calamity, but it is in part manufactured,” De Schutter said, adding that climate change will result in such events being more frequent. He called for, among other measures, emergency food reserves in strategic positions, and better preparedness for drought, for which Governments must be held to account.

“With a rate of child malnutrition above 30 per cent in many regions of these countries, the failure of the international community to act would result in major violations of the right to food,” De Schutter said. “International law imposes on States in a position to help that they do so immediately, where lives are at stake.”

Shokuri Abdullai like most mothers in Bisle feeds her family boiled maize in the Somali region's Shinile zone (Ethiopia). Photo: Jaspreet Kindra/IRIN

Al Jazeera has reported that Kenya has agreed to open a new camp near its Somalia border to cope with the influx of refugees fleeing the region’s worst drought in 60 years. The lfo II camp in Dabaab will open its doors to 80,000 refugees within 10 days, the Kenyan government said. Prime Minister Raila Odinga agreed to the opening to the new camp, after visiting Dadaab’s three existing camps where an estimated 380,000 refugees are now living at facilities intended to cope with a population of 90,000 people.

A spokesman for the charity Save the Children, said “more children have died in Dadaab in the first four months of the year than all of last year”. Many Somali refugees at the camp have travelled through harsh conditions with little food or water, and no humanitarian assistance, often abandoning members of their family who have died or are so weak to travel. Al Jazeera’s Azad Essa, who reported from the Dabaab camp, said, “Over the past month, around 20,000 have made their way to Dadaab, many of them through similar means”.

Dadaab’s existing camps were set up in 1991 to host refugees fleeing war in Somalia. Between 40,000 and 60,000 are thought to be living outside the boundaries of the complex – existing as refugees beyond the current scope and control of the UN. Somalis have been fleeing from war for years now, but the drought, affecting 12 million people across the Horn of Africa, has brought the threat of a new humanitarian catastrophe to the region, with many people also seeking refuge in Ethiopia. Al Jazeera has more on the refugee crisis in the Horn of Africa here.

The U.N. Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs  (OCHA) has provided a ‘snapshot’ of the humanitarian crisis in the Horn of Africa country:
* 2.85 million Somalis require urgent aid – that’s one in three people
* At least one in three children are malnourished in parts of southern Somalia
* More than 460 Somali children have died in nutrition centres in Somalia between January and May this year
* Malnutrition rates among new arrivals in refugee camps in Ethiopia and Kenya range between 30 and 40 percent
* As of late June, 60,200 Somalis were registered in Kenya this year — a more than 100 percent increase compared with the same period last year
* Life expectancy is 50.4 years, according to the U.N. Development Programme (UNDP)
* Women dying in childbirth: 1,000 per 100,000 live births reported, according to UNICEF
* One in 10 Somali children dies before their first birthday
* Primary school enrolment rate is 23 percent
* Average HIV prevalence level estimated at 0.5 percent of the population aged 15 to 49
* Percentage of people with access to safe, clean water: 29 percent

(Sources: OCHA, UNICEF, UNDP)

It is not just Somalis who are suffering, Euronews has reported. Famine is affecting all countries in the Horn of Africa. Now 11 million people need help to survive the food shortages. In Habaswein in the far north of Kenya there has been no rain for a year. Many animals have died. Others have been taken further north in search of water. Only women, children and the elderly remain in the village.

Like many others, Fatuma Ahmed depends on rations of maize, beans and oil provided by aid agencies and the government. She said: “I have no husband. I’m raising my children alone. We had some animals but they’ve all died. Now we’re depending on aid from charities. What I’m cooking now is the only meal my family will eat today.” In the village of Fini, farmers try to move a dying cow into the shade. The animal will only last a few days. This is not the first time this area has been hit by drought, but according to villagers like Mori Omar, it has never been this bad.

“I’ve never experienced anything like this. I’m 56 years old, but I look more like 80 because of many years of not having enough food. During the droughts, there’s no meat or milk,” she said. There is a growing consensus that climate change is to blame for the driest period in 60 years. The UN says droughts are becoming more frequent – before they used to be every five or 10 years, now it is every two.

IRIN News has a report, ‘Somalis living from drought to drought’, on the perilous state of food availability in Bisle, the Somali region. Every day, 500g of boiled wheat is divided up between two adults, four children, a calf, a goat and a donkey in the Farah household. It is the only food they have had after rains failed for the past two seasons. The 15kg sack of wheat is provided to about 1,200 people in the Bisle area, which has four settlements, under the government-run Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) as payment for work, such as digging water holes.

“It is boiled wheat for breakfast and for the main meal – we don’t have anything else – no milk, no meat, no vegetables, no oil,” says Maria Farah, the mother. Not surprisingly, two of her children are severely malnourished. The calf and goat that share their “ari” – a collapsible egg-shaped hut made of sticks and covered with sheeting – are emaciated. It is too hot for them outside, in temperatures that soar beyond 40 degrees Celsius. There is no water in their settlement, about 54km north of Dire Dawa town in the Somali region, one of the worst hit by drought in Ethiopia. More than a million people have been affected.

Pakistan’s crippling crop and livestock loss

A man uses a large cooking pan as a boat near the Reikhbaghwala village in Rajanpur district in Punjab. Photo: IRIN News / Jaspreet Kindra

ReliefWeb has reported the main points of a new briefing on the Pakistan flood situation by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA):

(1) The emergency continues to unfold in the southernmost province of Sindh. Additional towns and villages in Dadu and Jamshoro districts have been flooded in recent days, as Manchar Lake breached its banks. (2) The health cluster warns of an increased risk of malaria, particularly in the south, in the coming days and weeks. (3) A fully revised floods response plan, the Floods Emergency Response Plan (FERP), will be launched in New York on 17 September by United Nations Under-Secretary-General and Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos. (4) Though 74% of the requirements set out in the Pakistan Initial Floods Emergency Response Plan (PIFERP) have now been covered, massively scaled up donor support will be needed to meet the increased requirements set out in the FERP.

The Dawn has reported on the growing losses in Pakistan’s crops and livestock, and it makes for dreadful reading.

“The country has suffered a loss of about Rs250 billion in the agricultural and livestock sectors and the flood recovery costs may run into billions of dollars, local experts and a UN spokesman said on Thursday. The Minister for Food and Agriculture, Nazar Mohammad Gondal, said: “It is difficult to give an exact figure, but I agree that the loss of agriculture and livestock runs into billions of rupees. The floods have destroyed crops of cotton, rice, sugarcane and tobacco worth billions of rupees.”

Javed Saleem, a former president of the Crops Protection Association (CPA), and Ibrahim Mughal, chairman of the Pakistan Agricultural Farms Association (PAFA), said over 17 million acres of agricultural land had been submerged and ripe crops of rice, cotton and sugarcane destroyed. Over 100,000 cows, buffaloes, goats, sheep, horses, camels and donkeys have been lost and 3,000 fish farms and 2,000 poultry farms destroyed across the country. “According to an estimate, the loss of cotton crop is of about Rs 155 billion,” Mr Saleem said.

Mohammad Rezwan, 24, swims one hour every other day to get food from at a World Food Programme distribution in Kashmore, Pakistan. Photo: IRIN News

In Punjab alone, a cotton growing area of about one million acres had been affected and crops worth Rs86 billion destroyed, he said. “The whole agricultural belt that includes Jhang, Bhakkar, Rajanpur, Rahimyar Khan and Layyah has been inundated.” Sindh has lost standing crops worth Rs 95 billion over 100,000 acres. Cotton and rice are the major crops destroyed by the floods. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, over 325,000 acres have been submerged and crops worth Rs 29.6 billion destroyed. Mr Mughal said over one million tons of wheat stock kept in houses had been swept away. “About 1,000 tractors have also been lost,” he said.

The Dawn report said: “According to dealers, the floods have caused a shortage of food items and the prices of fruits and vegetables have increased by 25 to 50 per cent. It is feared that the situation will persist for the whole year till cultivation resumes in flooded areas.”

What will the combination of ruinous losses and soaring prices to do people like Wali Jamote, 50, who fled his village in Nasirabad District early in August, as reported by IRIN News. “I lost everything we had – our tent, the few clothes, shoes and utensils we possess, and worse of all my goats and a camel,” Wali told IRIN. He and his family move every few months in search of fresh pasture: “The animals were all we had. They provided us with milk and cheese, and without them my children have gone hungry.” He said he had been given “no help at all” by any agency.

The cover of Granta magazine No 112 on Pakistan. © Islam Gull, design by Michael Salu

Thousands of people camped out along the main road from Quetta, capital of the southwestern Pakistani province of Balochistan, to Sukkur in Sindh Province, are living in primitive conditions, some with no shelter from the scorching sun. Among them are a particularly vulnerable group: nomads who have lost their livestock. Worse still, Wali and others like him have no idea what the future holds. “Will anyone give me a camel?” he asked. He also said he had no national identity card. “Some soldiers who passed by said I could receive no help without it – but they also said that with no fixed address I was not eligible for one.”

The International Crisis Group has advised that Pakistan’s government and international actors must ensure those in flood-devastated conflict zones are urgently granted the assistance they need to survive and to rebuild lives, without the military dictating rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts. Pakistan: The Worsening IDP Crisis, is the title of a new briefing on internally displaced persons from the International Crisis Group.

It highlights how the country not only faces an unprecedented natural disaster, but also confronts the twin challenges of stabilising a fragile democratic transition and countering violent extremism. The civilian government, already tackling an insurgency, and its institutions, neglected during nine years of military rule, lack the capacity and means to provide sufficient food, shelter, health and sanitation without international assistance. But all sides must ensure community-based civil society groups, credible secular non-governmental organisations, and elected representatives lead the process.

Economic impacts of Pakistan floods

A flooded Thatta suburb, Pakistan. Photo © Jaspreet Kindra/IRIN

For hundreds of thousands of Pakistanis forced by the floods to abandon their homes, food is a primary concern. IRIN news reports that some families have gone days without a meal. Frances Kennedy, a World Food Programme (WFP) spokesperson, told IRIN: “We are very concerned about the nutritional situation. About 2.8 million people have been reached, but there are others in need. Camps are crowded and people are sleeping on sides of the roads.” WFP has been supplying “dry rations” (family rations for a month), made up of wheat flour fortified with vitamins and minerals, cooking oil and high-energy biscuits.

“This allows us to reach more people, more quickly… These distributions are at different points across the flood zone – both in camps and other locations identified through our assessments and where partners have been able to set up distribution sites,” Marcus Prior, a WFP spokesman, told IRIN. Currently about 4.8 million people are without shelter, “although we believe this may have gone up considerably with the latest developments in Sindh,” said Maurizio Giuliano, a spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs.

The immediate impact on the population is truly staggering — 20 million people affected with 8 million in need of water, food, and shelter; 1,500 to 2,000 killed; 4 million left homeless; and 15 million displaced. The devastation has hit virtually all sectors of the economy. The Pakistan government estimates total economic damage to be near $15 billion, or about 10 percent of GDP. Damage to infrastructure alone (roads, power plants, telecommunications, dams and irrigation systems, and schools and health clinics) amounts to around $10 billion.

Mohsin S. Khan, senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Shuja Nawaz, director of the South Asia Center at the Atlantic Council of the United States, have written about the economic impact of the Pakistan floods. They say that agriculture, which represents 25 percent of the Pakistan economy and provides employment to 50 percent of the workforce, was extremely hard hit. At least 30 percent of the cotton crop has washed away, which is bound to devastate the textile industry, the mainstay of Pakistani manufacturing and exports. Adding to this is the loss of wheat, rice, and maize crops, and about 10 million head of livestock. Altogether agricultural production this year could fall by as much as 15 percent. Even next year’s production is likely to show a further decline because the spring wheat crop that needs to be planted in October–December this year will not be possible.

While Khyber-Pakhtunkwa is inundated with water, there is very little that is safe to drink. Photo © Abdul Majeed Goraya/IRIN

“The overall growth of real GDP, which prior to the floods was projected to be in the 3 to 4 percent range for 2010, will now turn negative,” say Khan and Nawaz. “Estimates of the fall in real GDP are in the 2 to 5 percent range, although it is conceivable that the decline could be far greater as more information on the losses of both physical assets and production becomes available.”

“Reconstruction activity could provide some boost to the growth rate, but it is likely that any positive effects will only show up in 2011 and beyond, and even then it may not be sufficient to bring the growth rate back to the 2009 level of 4 percent for several years. Inflation, which is already in double digits, will rise with the increase in food prices and the destruction of the food supply distribution networks. Furthermore, the government will need to finance the reconstruction effort, and absent sufficient foreign assistance and the inability to divert domestic revenues toward reconstruction, the increased expenditures will necessarily widen the fiscal deficit.”

“The floods have dealt Pakistan a severe body blow while it was still reeling from the economic crisis, political infighting, and the war against terror. The diversion of resources and attention to the flood relief and reconstruction work will undoubtedly affect social spending and the drive against the Pakistani Taliban, whose fighters have been dislocated from their tribal bases in the Northwest Frontier region and have taken the war back into the Pakistani hinterland.”