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World crop estimates 2011 November – more wheat, China corn, less rice

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The November data and major crop summaries from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service) are out today. Here are the highlights:

Wheat – Global wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected 2.6 million tons higher mostly reflecting higher production in Kazakhstan and EU-27. Kazakhstan production is raised 2.0 million tons as an extended harvest period capped off a nearly ideal growing season, confirmed by the latest government reports. EU-27 production is raised 1.2 million tons with further upward revisions for France and Spain and higher reported production in the United Kingdom and Czech Republic. Partly offsetting these increases is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina and 0.3-million-ton reductions for both Algeria and Ethiopia.

World wheat trade is raised for 2011-12 with higher expected imports for China, a number of African countries, including Morocco and Algeria, as well as for Brazil and several FSU-12 countries neighboring Kazakhstan. Partly offsetting is a reduction in projected imports for South Korea where more corn feeding is expected. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Russia reflecting larger supplies in EU-27 and the continued heavy pace of shipments from Russia.

Global wheat consumption for 2011-12 is raised 2.4 million tons with increased feeding expected for Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Serbia. Larger crops in Kazakhstan and Serbia support more wheat feeding. Recent rains in southern Brazil have reduced wheat quality in some areas raising the potential for more feeding. Higher consumption is also expected for EU-27, Ethiopia, Kenya, and several smaller FSU-12 countries. Global ending stocks are projected 0.2 million tons higher. Rising stocks in Kazakhstan, China, and Morocco are partly offset by reductions in major exporting countries including Russia, Argentina, and EU-27.

You can get the WASDE 2011 November outlook here [pdf] and the 2011 November Excel file is here [xls]. Current and historical WASDE data are here.

Coarse grain – Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-12 are projected slightly lower with reduced U.S. corn production and lower EU-27 rye production more than offsetting higher Argentina sorghum production, higher EU-27 corn, barley, oats production, and higher Kazakhstan barley production. Corn production is lowered for a number of countries with the biggest reduction for Mexico where production is lowered 3.5 million tons. A late start to the summer rainy season and an early September freeze in parts of the southern plateau corn belt reduced yields for Mexico’s summer crop. Lower expected area for the winter crop, which will be planted in November and December, also reduces 2011-12 corn production prospects. Reservoir levels are well below those necessary to sustain a normal seasonal draw down in the northwestern corn areas which normally account for 70 to 80 percent of Mexico’s winter corn crop.

Increases in 2011-12 corn production for a number of countries partly offset reductions in Mexico, the United States, and Serbia. Corn production is raised 2.5 million tons for China with increases in both area and yields in line with the latest indications from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. EU-27 corn production is raised 1.9 million tons mostly reflecting higher reported output in France, Romania, and Austria. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons with higher expected area. FSU-12 production is raised 0.7 million tons with higher reported yields in Belarus and Russia. There are also a number of production changes this month to corn and sorghum production in Sub-Saharan Africa which reduce coarse grain production for the region.

World coarse grain trade for 2011-12 is raised with increased global imports and exports of barley and corn. Barley imports are raised for Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan with exports increased for EU-27 and Russia. Corn imports are increased for China, Mexico, and South Korea. Higher expected corn exports from Argentina and EU-27 support these increases. Higher sorghum exports from Argentina offset the reduction in expected U.S. sorghum shipments. Global corn consumption is mostly unchanged with higher industrial use and feeding in China and higher corn feeding in EU-27 and South Korea offsetting reductions in Mexico and the United States. Global corn ending stocks are projected 1.6 million tons lower with reductions in EU-27, Mexico, Brazil, and the United States outweighing increases for China and Argentina.

RiceGlobal 2011-12 rice supply and use are lowered from a month ago. World 2011-12 production is forecast at a record 461.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month due mainly to decreases for Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand, which are partially offset by an increase for China. Thailand’s 2011-12 rice crop is lowered nearly a million tons as losses in the main-season crop from recent flooding are partially offset by an expected re-planting of some of the main season crop in the Northern Region along with an expected record dry-season crop. Flooding also lowered crop prospects in Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. China’s 2011-12 crop is raised 2.0 million tons to a record 141.0 million, due to an increase in harvested area. Harvested area is increased based on recent indications from the government of China. The increase in global consumption is due mostly to an increase for China. Global exports are lowered slightly due to reductions for Burma and Cambodia, which are partially offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 100.6 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month, but an increase of 2.6 million from the previous year.

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Wheat crop prospects down globally

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The USDA says that exporter stocks of wheat are now forecast to drop year-to-year by 12 MMT (16%), whereas, just a few months ago, these stocks were forecast to expand modestly. Deteriorating crop prospects in several major exporting countries, particularly Canada, Kazakhstan, and Russia, along with strong global import demand, have contributed to that reversal. Tightening supplies are already causing prices in the United States and the EU to rise.

“However, the drawdown of exporter stocks is expected to partially mitigate the current production shortfall,” says the USDA forecast. “The United States is the exception, with expansion currently forecast in production, exports and ending stocks. As supplies for high protein wheat shrink in other exporting countries, the United States is well positioned to take advantage of any further tightening of supplies and/or stronger global import demand. With planting just getting underway, the Southern Hemisphere producers, Australia and Argentina, are the wildcards in the supply picture since they typically hold relatively little stocks.”

International prices of wheat and maize increased by 19% and 12% in the first two weeks of July reflecting concerns about deterioration of global wheat prospects, particularly in some main exporter countries. By contrast, rice prices continued to decline given abundant supplies. By mid-July export prices of maize are higher than a year ago, said FAO’s July assessment of the world food situation.

“The worst drought in four decades has adversely affected this year’s wheat production in the Russian Federation, the fourth world exporter of wheat. Emergency has been declared in 16 regions and an output reduction of 20-25 percent is forecast. However, due to high carryover of stocks from the previous seasons, exports are expected to remain at about last year’s level. In Kazakhstan, wheat production is anticipated some 20 percent less than the record level of 2009. Exports are expected to decline, which may affect neighbouring wheat deficit countries in Central Asia. By contrast, excessive rains in Ukraine are delaying harvest of wheat and lowering quality of the crop. Elsewhere, wheat production is forecast to decline by 20 percent in Canada but prospects are satisfactory in Europe, the largest producing region, and very good in the United States. Overall, the global wheat production is anticipated lower than earlier forecast but supply should remain adequate in the 2010/11 marketing year reflecting large stocks.”

Delayed monsoon rains rise concern for main 2010 rice crop in parts of South-east Asia. Serious damage to paddy seedlings is reported in Lao People’s Democratic Republic. Late main season rains are delaying sowing in Viet Nam and some parts in Thailand. More precipitation is needed soon to avoid plantings reduction. By contrast, favourable monsoon rains in India and Bangladesh benefited the wet season paddy crops currently being planted. Rice and wheat crops from the 2010 winter season, already harvested, were good in most countries despite rainfall deficits during the growing period.

Written by makanaka

August 3, 2010 at 20:12