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Posts Tagged ‘United Kingdom

How the Scot ‘no’ changed Europe and the UK

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Scotland_20140918_IndependentWith results from the 32 councils declared, the ‘no’ voters of Scotland carried referendum day and opted to stay in the union, that is, the United Kingdom. The margin – 55% ‘no’ to 45% ‘yes’ – still means that every other Scot wants independence of some sort from the UK and its London-centric Westminster government.

There are some immediate reliefs for London’s politicos who were besides themselves with worry until early today morning. The Union survives (but not in the same shape). Still, this means that the UK remains a G7 economic power and a member of the UN Security Council. It also means Scotland will get more devolution and David Cameron will not be forced out (which may be a disappointment to many more English people than the number of those who voted ‘yes’).

Those reliefs will not provide cheers until after this weekend. Monday morning, the United Kingdom will have to look back at the last few weeks of referendum mania, and the last few adrenalin and hope-filled days, and realise that the 307-year-old union must change course radically to stay in any shape at all (and even that will be on borrowed time). Here is why:

Scotland_20140918_TelegraphFirst, there has indeed been a victory for Scotland, for those who considered themselves patriots for voting ‘yes’ and for voting ‘no’. The victory is more devolution for Scotland. Scottish Nationalist Party leader Alex Salmond (who is also the governor of Scotland) is the one who initiated the referendum campaign and who had wanted three options on the ballot papers: independence; the status quo; or more devolution for Scotland.

Until mid-year, the British government led by prime minister David Cameron accepted only the independence question, for more powers to the regional government in Edinburgh was rejected outright, and at the time they thought so, polls were showing a comfortable majority against ‘yes’ – as high as 65% in 2013. That advantage dropped steadily, with a shock poll in early September 2014 putting the ‘yes’ camp for the first time in the lead. This is when Cameron and the leaders of the two other main parties in Westminster – Labour and the Liberal-Democrats – signed a pledge to give more powers to Scotland if its voters chose ‘no’. Cameron and the other leaders – Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and the Labour party’s leader Ed Miliband – will now have to deliver on those promises and also face claims from the other regions – Wales, England and Northern Ireland – for more money and powers.

Scotland_20140918_HeraldSecond, the ‘yes’ camp had painstakingly put together the arguments its campaign needed to show that Scotland could be successful as an independent country. These arguments appealed to many and convinced a good number – just over 44% as it has turned out – to take the leap of faith and thereby stare down the ‘no’ placards which read, “It’s not worth the risk”. Where the SNP fell short was in convincing more Scots about the risks and how to hedge them. But even in falling short, the ‘yes’ camp has proved to UK (and to all those regions in Europe seeking self-determination) that to seek independence is a powerful and uplifting tonic, which is a substance in very short supply all over the continent.

In the end – for so the commentators and observers mutter – it is the respectable middle class in sober dress who have tended to vote ‘no’, and so have the Labour stalwarts of all ages for whom some idea of ‘solidarity’ is apparently more comforting and familiar than the gritty new business of making independence work and dealing with the more obvious contradictions of the Salmond plan. Scottish monetary union with the UK also meant an independent Scotland using the pound as its single currency, but having no control over it.

Scotland_20140918_GuardianThe Euro crisis taught Europeans that a monetary union without a political one is a debilitating project, and so the risks shrewdly exploited by the ‘no’ camp (and the banks and the petroleum industry, let’s not forget them) came to weigh more than placards. Even so, Scottish independence as an idea based upon an implicit assumption of Scottish national and ethnic uniqueness – incompatible with the British identity, as any gent in a kilt would swear – has been considerably strengthened, at the cost of the Westminster style of government, whose days are from today numbered.

Third, the nature of this long demise. Early on Saturday morning political scientists were already saying that for British politics, much thought now needs to be given to constitutional arrangements, that constitutional change will have to be delivered. Such work will have to begin on Monday morning to make a start towards reconciling all the interests – Scots, English, Welsh, Northern Irish and local (however local chooses to define itself in the UK). It is not the kind of “epochal opportunity” that the SNP was waving overhead as a flag until yesterday, but it is for similar movements all over Europe, and the project in UK will be watched very carefully indeed in those countries and territories.

Scotland_20140918_TimesSalmond and the SNP will still govern Scotland until 2016 and the party will need to decide whether to run in 2016 on a stronger pledge for full independence (a two-stage referendum was amongst the eminently sensible suggestion made earlier this year). The question of equality will be raised more pertinently than before – in the Linlithgow Palace, Scotland’s James V built an elaborate fountain to express his equal status with his English uncle, Henry VIII, and amongst the ruins the fountain survives as a vivid reminder of Scottish pride. As for the economics of independence, it was Salmond who told the BBC: “The central mistake that the ‘no’ campaign has made is to tell the people of Scotland that the land of Adam Smith is not capable of running its own matters financially.”

The Scottish ‘no’ therefore is but a punctuation mark in a strong statement of cultural identity that began to be written well over half a millennium ago. A more thoughtful UK may result, one whose political performers learn to understand the union they claim to love. If so, the Scots have indeed won.

[The Khaleej Times published my article here.]

World crop estimates in June – lower wheat, corn and coarse grain, rice mixed

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Here it is, just released. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) of the USDA, 09 June 2011. Highlights and key points for the major crop groups follow:

Global wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected slightly lower this month as an increase in beginning stocks is more than offset by lower production. Global beginning stocks are projected 4.9 million tons higher mostly reflecting increased stocks in Russia as feeding is reduced 2.0 million tons and 5.0 million tons, respectively, for 2009-10 and 2010-11. Beginning stocks for 2011-12 are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Argentina and Canada with the same size reductions in 2010-11 exports for each country. Partly offsetting is a 1.5-million-ton decrease for 2011-12 beginning stocks for Australia with higher 2010-11 exports.

World wheat production is projected 5.2 million tons lower for 2011-12. At 664.3 million tons, production would be the third highest on record and up 16.1 million from 2010-11. This month’s reduction for 2011-12 mostly reflects a 7.1-million-ton decrease for EU-27 wheat output. Persistent dryness, particularly in France, but also in Germany, the United Kingdom, and western Poland, has reduced yield prospects for EU-27. Production is also reduced 1.0 million tons for Canada as flooding and excessive rainfall, particularly in southeastern Saskatchewan and adjoining areas of Manitoba, are expected to reduce spring wheat seeding. Production is increased 1.5 million tons for Argentina and 0.5 million tons for Australia, both reflecting favorable planting conditions and strong producer price incentives to expand area. Production is also raised 0.5 million tons for Pakistan as increased use of higher quality seed and adequate water supplies resulted in higher-than-expected yields.

Global wheat trade for 2011-12 is projected slightly higher reflecting a 0.5-million-ton increase in expected imports by EU-27. Exports are lowered 3.0 million tons for EU-27. Export increases of 2.0 million tons and 1.0 million tons, respectively, for Australia and Argentina offset the EU-27 reduction. Exports are raised 0.3 million tons for Pakistan with the larger crop. Global wheat consumption is projected down 3.3 million tons, mostly reflecting a 2.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 domestic use.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-12 are projected down 7.8 million tons this month with lower beginning stocks and production. Reduced U.S. corn production, lower EU-27 barley production, and reduced corn beginning stocks in China, more than offset increases in China corn production. EU-27 barley production is lowered 2.2 million tons as prolonged dryness across western and northern Europe has sharply reduced yield prospects in the major producing countries. China corn area is raised for 2010-11 in line with the most recent official government area estimates with the year-to-year percentage increase for 2011-12 largely maintained.

China corn production increases 5.0 million and 6.0 million tons, respectively, for 2010-11 and 2011-12 with yields unchanged month-to-month. More than offsetting the higher production levels is higher estimated corn consumption for both feeding and industrial use. China corn consumption is raised 8.0 million tons and 13.0 million tons, respectively, for 2010-11 and 2011-12. Together these changes leave projected 2011-12 corn ending stocks down 12.0 million tons for China. At the projected 51.0 million tons, China’s stocks would be down 2.7 million tons from 2010-11 and just below the levels of the preceding 2 years, better reflecting the continuing rise in domestic corn prices as production struggles to keep pace with rising usage. Although China’s stocks represent 46 percent of the world total for 2011-12, China is not expected to be a significant exporter.

Global 2011-12 corn trade is raised slightly this month with higher imports for EU-27 and higher exports for Ukraine. Ukraine exports are raised 1.0 million tons with higher production and stronger expected demand from EU-27. Russia exports are lowered 0.5 million tons with lower production. Other important trade changes this month include a 0.2-million-ton increase in sorghum imports by Mexico, driving the U.S. export increase, and a 1.5-million-ton reduction in EU-27 barley exports with lower production and tighter supplies. Barley imports are lowered for Saudi Arabia and China. Global corn ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected down sharply this month, falling 17.3 million tons mostly reflecting the usage revisions in China. The projected 5.2-million-ton drop in U.S. ending stocks accounts for most of the rest of the decline. Global corn stocks are projected at 111.9 million tons, the lowest since 2006-07.

Global 2011-12 rice supply and use are lowered from a month ago. Global production is projected at a record 456.4 million tons, down 1.5 million from last month’s forecast, primarily due to a decrease for China. Additionally, production projections are raised for Egypt and Guyana, but lowered for the United States and Cuba. China’s 2011-12 rice crop is projected at 138.0 million tons, down 2.0 million from a month ago; primarily due to the impact of prolonged drier-than-normal weather in the Yangtze River Valley affecting mostly early rice. Egypt’s crop is increased 0.9 million tons to 4.0 million due to a 33 percent increase in area—based on a recent report from the Agricultural Counselor in Cairo. The global import and export forecasts for 2011-12 are little changed from last month. Global consumption for 2011-12 is lowered 0.8 million tons, primarily due to lower consumption expected in China, but partially offset by increases for Egypt, EU-27, and Vietnam. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 94.9 million tons, down 1.3 million from last month, due primarily to reductions for China and the United States which are partially offset by increases for Egypt, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

Global oilseed production for 2011-12 is projected at 456.9 million tons, down 2.3 million from last month, mainly due to lower rapeseed production. EU-27 rapeseed production is reduced 1.2 million tons to 18.8 million mainly due to lower yields resulting from dry conditions in April and May in major producing areas of France and Germany. Rapeseed production for Canada is lowered 0.5 million tons to 13.0 million due to reduced area planted resulting from excessive moisture this spring. China soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 14.3 million reflecting lower area as producers shifted to corn. Other changes include increased sunflowerseed production for Russia, and reduced cottonseed production for Australia, Pakistan, and the United States. Brazil’s 2010-11 soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to a record 74.5 million, reflecting yield and production increases reported in the most recent government survey. [Get the full WASDE report here.]