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Posts Tagged ‘Scotland

How the Scot ‘no’ changed Europe and the UK

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Scotland_20140918_IndependentWith results from the 32 councils declared, the ‘no’ voters of Scotland carried referendum day and opted to stay in the union, that is, the United Kingdom. The margin – 55% ‘no’ to 45% ‘yes’ – still means that every other Scot wants independence of some sort from the UK and its London-centric Westminster government.

There are some immediate reliefs for London’s politicos who were besides themselves with worry until early today morning. The Union survives (but not in the same shape). Still, this means that the UK remains a G7 economic power and a member of the UN Security Council. It also means Scotland will get more devolution and David Cameron will not be forced out (which may be a disappointment to many more English people than the number of those who voted ‘yes’).

Those reliefs will not provide cheers until after this weekend. Monday morning, the United Kingdom will have to look back at the last few weeks of referendum mania, and the last few adrenalin and hope-filled days, and realise that the 307-year-old union must change course radically to stay in any shape at all (and even that will be on borrowed time). Here is why:

Scotland_20140918_TelegraphFirst, there has indeed been a victory for Scotland, for those who considered themselves patriots for voting ‘yes’ and for voting ‘no’. The victory is more devolution for Scotland. Scottish Nationalist Party leader Alex Salmond (who is also the governor of Scotland) is the one who initiated the referendum campaign and who had wanted three options on the ballot papers: independence; the status quo; or more devolution for Scotland.

Until mid-year, the British government led by prime minister David Cameron accepted only the independence question, for more powers to the regional government in Edinburgh was rejected outright, and at the time they thought so, polls were showing a comfortable majority against ‘yes’ – as high as 65% in 2013. That advantage dropped steadily, with a shock poll in early September 2014 putting the ‘yes’ camp for the first time in the lead. This is when Cameron and the leaders of the two other main parties in Westminster – Labour and the Liberal-Democrats – signed a pledge to give more powers to Scotland if its voters chose ‘no’. Cameron and the other leaders – Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg and the Labour party’s leader Ed Miliband – will now have to deliver on those promises and also face claims from the other regions – Wales, England and Northern Ireland – for more money and powers.

Scotland_20140918_HeraldSecond, the ‘yes’ camp had painstakingly put together the arguments its campaign needed to show that Scotland could be successful as an independent country. These arguments appealed to many and convinced a good number – just over 44% as it has turned out – to take the leap of faith and thereby stare down the ‘no’ placards which read, “It’s not worth the risk”. Where the SNP fell short was in convincing more Scots about the risks and how to hedge them. But even in falling short, the ‘yes’ camp has proved to UK (and to all those regions in Europe seeking self-determination) that to seek independence is a powerful and uplifting tonic, which is a substance in very short supply all over the continent.

In the end – for so the commentators and observers mutter – it is the respectable middle class in sober dress who have tended to vote ‘no’, and so have the Labour stalwarts of all ages for whom some idea of ‘solidarity’ is apparently more comforting and familiar than the gritty new business of making independence work and dealing with the more obvious contradictions of the Salmond plan. Scottish monetary union with the UK also meant an independent Scotland using the pound as its single currency, but having no control over it.

Scotland_20140918_GuardianThe Euro crisis taught Europeans that a monetary union without a political one is a debilitating project, and so the risks shrewdly exploited by the ‘no’ camp (and the banks and the petroleum industry, let’s not forget them) came to weigh more than placards. Even so, Scottish independence as an idea based upon an implicit assumption of Scottish national and ethnic uniqueness – incompatible with the British identity, as any gent in a kilt would swear – has been considerably strengthened, at the cost of the Westminster style of government, whose days are from today numbered.

Third, the nature of this long demise. Early on Saturday morning political scientists were already saying that for British politics, much thought now needs to be given to constitutional arrangements, that constitutional change will have to be delivered. Such work will have to begin on Monday morning to make a start towards reconciling all the interests – Scots, English, Welsh, Northern Irish and local (however local chooses to define itself in the UK). It is not the kind of “epochal opportunity” that the SNP was waving overhead as a flag until yesterday, but it is for similar movements all over Europe, and the project in UK will be watched very carefully indeed in those countries and territories.

Scotland_20140918_TimesSalmond and the SNP will still govern Scotland until 2016 and the party will need to decide whether to run in 2016 on a stronger pledge for full independence (a two-stage referendum was amongst the eminently sensible suggestion made earlier this year). The question of equality will be raised more pertinently than before – in the Linlithgow Palace, Scotland’s James V built an elaborate fountain to express his equal status with his English uncle, Henry VIII, and amongst the ruins the fountain survives as a vivid reminder of Scottish pride. As for the economics of independence, it was Salmond who told the BBC: “The central mistake that the ‘no’ campaign has made is to tell the people of Scotland that the land of Adam Smith is not capable of running its own matters financially.”

The Scottish ‘no’ therefore is but a punctuation mark in a strong statement of cultural identity that began to be written well over half a millennium ago. A more thoughtful UK may result, one whose political performers learn to understand the union they claim to love. If so, the Scots have indeed won.

[The Khaleej Times published my article here.]

Heard the one about the nuclear submarine on the rocks?

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John Bull: Heard the latest Monty? One of our flippin’ nuclear sub’s on the rocks!

Maninder ‘Monty’ Singh: So’s Wayne Rooney, accordin’ to The Sun.

Thar she blows. The unfortunate HMS Astute. Pic: BBC

John: Just listen to this. I mean can you believe this! “The world’s most advanced nuclear submarine, HMS Astute, has run aground on rocks off Scotland causing considerable embarrassment for Navy chiefs.” I’ll bet it’s bloody embarassing for them blokes. So’s my pension. It says, “It is understood that the boat ran aground by its stern in a manoeuvre that ‘went slightly wrong’ after it had dropped some sailors ashore off the Isle of Skye.”

Monty: All they ever say is ‘went slightly wrong’. Sorry mate, we botched it up, here’s the bill.

John: Yes but I mean Monty old man this wretched boat runs off a flippin’ nuclear reactor you know! And they’ve gone and crashed the thing! “Navy insiders insisted that there was no likelihood of a nuclear reactor leak or any other environmental issue. No one was injured in the incident that happened earlier today. It came the morning after Trafalgar Day, where sailors celebrated the 205th anniversary of Nelson’s victory”. Hahaha! Ol’ Nelson must be spinning in his grave he must be.

Monty: Thought they dropped him full fathom five when he passed on?

John: Yer misinformed. But listen to this: “HMS Astute ran aground by her stern earlier this morning as she was transferring people ashore, a Navy spokesman said. There’s no nuclear issue or no environmental issue that we are aware of and no one has been hurt.” Cheek the bugger has doesn’t he? “That we’re aware of”! And what happens when we’re done and fried like those kebabs you’re constantly pining for, what then eh Monty?

Monty: Sad news about them kebabs Johnny-boy, Tesco’s not stocking them any more. They’ve filled the shelves up with soyameal crap again.

John: Oh the irony the delicious irony. “The submarine, which carries a crew of 98, will now wait until later today for tug boats to pull her off when the tide comes in.” World’s most advanced vessel they say and now it’s up to ‘umble tugs to get ‘er out of trouble.

Monty: You mean they haven’t phoned bonnie Prince Charlie yet to ask for help? Come to think of it, Alex Ferguson would be a better bet.

John: Can you think of anything else but footer Monty? Here’s some juicy stuff: “Eye-witness Ross McKerlich said the submarine was about a mile from his home and appeared slightly tilted.” Bloody hell, a tilted nuclear sub perched on rocks and tey tell us not to worry?! “He said: ‘When I woke up this morning and looked out my bedroom window I could see the submarine. I am very surprised how far in it has come as there are good navigational buoys there’.” Oh fer heaven’s sake, this is too bloody droll.

Monty: Don’t just sit there moaning Johnny-boy, pass the pint along.

Written by makanaka

October 22, 2010 at 19:18