Resources Research

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Posts Tagged ‘motorbike

The slowing motion of India’s quick mobility

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This is a chart whose lines drift downwards as time goes by, quite the opposite of all the usual depictions of India’s rising GDP, rising income, rising purchasing power, and so on. But in the two dropping lines is the proof that India’s households are tying themselves up in stifling vehicular knots.

This chart shows what we call two-wheelers (scooters and motor-cycles) and cars (four-wheeled passenger vehicles, formally). It also shows number of households and a span of 20 years. The two lines show the number of households to a car (the orange line) and the number of households to a two-wheeler (the blue line). As there are many more two-wheelers than there are cars, they are on different scales, so the left axis is for the two-wheelers and the right for cars.

vehicles_2012I have taken the data from two sources. One is the Census of India, for the census years 2011, 2001 and 1991. The other is the Road Transport Yearbook (2011-12) issued by the Transport Research Wing, Ministry Of Road Transport and Highways, Government Of India. The yearbook includes a table with the total number of registered vehicles (in different categories of vehicle – two-wheelers, cars, buses, goods vehicles, others) for every year. The number of households is from the census years, with simple decadal growth applied annually between census years. I have not yet found the detailed data that will let me refine this finding between urban and rural populations.

This is what the chart says: in 1992, there were 10 households to a two-wheeler and 48.7 households to a car. Ten years later in 2002 there were 4.8 households to a two-wheeler and 26.2 households to a car. Another ten years later in 2012 there were 2.2 households to a two-wheeler and 11.8 households to a car.

vehicles_2005The implications are several and almost all of them are an alarm signal. Especially for urban areas – where most of the buying of vehicles for households has taken place – the physical space available for the movement of people and goods has increased only marginally, but the number of motorised contrivances (cars, motor-cycles, scooters and more recently stupidly large SUVs and stupidly large and expensive luxury cars) has increased quickly. Naturally this ‘growth’ of wheeled metal has choked our city wards.

But there are other implications. One is the very idea of individual mobility in and through a town or city. The connection – foolishly maintained by one government after another, and foolishly defended by macro-economists and industrial planners – between the automobile industry and gross domestic product (GDP) has crippled common sense.

vehicles_1995More motorised conveyance per household also means more fuel demanded per household, and more fuel (and money) wasted because households are taught (by the auto industry with the encouragement of the foolish cohorts I mentioned earlier) that they are entitled to wasteful personal mobility. Over 20 years, the number of cars per household has increased 4.1 times but the number of buses per household has increased only 2.8 times. That is embarrassing proof of our un-ecological and climate unfriendly new habits.

In 2012, there were 1.67 million buses (of all kinds and configurations), there were 7.65 million goods vehicles (to move all those appliances demanded by households, food crops, fertiliser, retail food, etc), 13.16 million other vehicles (which as the ministry says “include tractors trailers, three-wheelers (passenger vehicles)/LMV and other miscellaneous vehicles which are not classified separately”), 21.56 million cars (including jeeps and taxis), and 115.41 million two-wheelers. There are far too many of some kinds and not enough of others. More than 20 years after ‘liberalisation’ began, India’s household mobility is crawling along in first gear for having made too many wrong choices.


India’s decade of wheeled deities

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In the period 2002-03 to 2008-09 the average annual growth rate in sales for the basic four categories of vehicles – commercial vehicles (lorries/trucks and buses), three-wheeled vehicles (that includes autorickshaws, which are short-distance transport in almost every Indian town and city), two-wheeled vehicles (that includes motorcycles, scooters and mopeds), and cars – has become the stuff of manufacturing legend.

India auto market (Reuters graphic)

India's vehicle market, Jan to Nov 2009, credit Reuters

Yearly sales growth of 17.46% for commercial vehicles, 13.51% for three-wheeled vehicles, 25.69% for cars, and 10.97% for two-wheeled vehicles have turned India into a market which has the potential to become a US$145 billion auto bazaar by 2016, say the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association (ACMA), the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) and the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) who have jointly organised the expo.

These are the numbers that have caused every single major automaker from anywhere in the world to descend on New Delhi. Ten years ago, in 1999-2000, auto factories in India had made 574,000 cars – in 2008-09 the annual figure is 1,620,000. In ten years the number of commercial vehicles built has more than doubled, from 299,000 to 635,000. In ten years the number of two-wheelers built has more than doubled, from 3,778,000 to 8,394,000.

“Why India?” asks the promotional literature of the Auto Expo, and the organisers (supported by the Government of India and representing too the interests of the global auto giants) smugly provide the answers: “India is the second largest two-wheeler market in the world”, “Fourth largest commercial vehicle market in the world”, “Eleventh largest passenger car market in the world, and expected to be the seventh largest by 2016”

There are twin reasons for the rise of the Indian automobile bazaar. First, since 2006, globally the automobile industry has suffered what it plaintively calls “severe demand shock” on account of the economic slowdown and credit crunch in western markets (OECD + North America).

Auto sales, China vs USA, Reuters graphics

Auto sales, China vs USA, Reuters graphics

The drop in demand for 2008 and 2009 has been 38% in the US, 18% in Europe and 13% in Japan. In contrast the Indian passenger vehicle market maintained its demand during 2008-09 and is rising sharply for 2009-10. This is why most of the big names in the global automobile industry (GM, Toyota, Ford, Hyundai, Suzuki, Honda, Skoda, Volvo, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Volkswagen) are planning what industry analysts call “significant capacity build-up for the Indian markets”.

The triumphant notes being sounded by the automobile czars in New Delhi ignore entirely India’s worryingly uneven and imbalanced sectoral distribution of ‘growth’. What the comprador media calls “the India growth story” has only marginally touched agriculture, with evidence that over a prolonged period starting in the early 1990s, the per capita output of foodgrains was on the decline for the first time in the country’s post-Independence history, as economist C P Chandrasekhar has pointed out. Around 55 per cent of the increment in GDP over the last decade has come from the services sector, and just less than half of that contribution was due to an expansion of organised services, public administration and defence.

This gigantic exercise in furthering the cult of the car in India is underwritten by the Government of India. The industry has as its guidebook the ‘Automotive Mission Plan 2006-2016: A Mission for Development of Indian Automotive Industry’. This is a policy document from India’s Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises which says, clearly and unambiguously in its ‘vision’ statement: “To emerge as the destination of choice in the world for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of US$145 billion accounting for more than 10% of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 million people by 2016.”

There’s more in the full article I wrote for Energy Bulletin here.