Posts Tagged ‘kharif’
With only just over a week remaining of the usual June to September monsoon season, the first estimates of crop production for the year 2016-17 have brought welcome news to Bharat.
The estimates are the first in the normal series of four which are released through the crop year 2016-17 by the Ministry of Agriculture ad Farmers’ Welfare. What they show is important for two reasons.
First, they come against doubts that have been raised in various quarters since the last week of August about the adequacy of the 2016 summer monsoon. Second, they show that the effects of the drought and drought-like conditions that gripped a number of districts of Bharat from March to May have not affected crop production. These are important messages both.
Coming to the numbers released, the production of kharif rice is on target: 93.88 million tons (mt) against the target of 93 mt. The production of ‘coarse cereals’ (which includes jowar, bajra, maize, ragi, small millets and barley) is on target: 32.46 mt against the target of 32.50 mt. The production of pulses (which includes tur or arhar, gram, urad, moong, and other kharif pulses) above target: 8.7 mt against the target of 7.25 mt.
The overall outlook then for kharif season production is foodgrains of about 135 mt (final amounts will be subject to revision as states confirm their data).
The Ministry of Agriculture through the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation has released its national drought crisis management plan. This is not taken as the signal for India that drought conditions will set in, but to prepare for drought where it is identified. In the fifth week of the South-West monsoon, the trend continues to be that week by week, the number of districts which have recorded less rainfall than they normally receive outnumber those districts with normal rainfall. When this happens over a prolonged period, such as four to six weeks, drought-like conditions set in and the administration prepares for these conditions.
There are a group of ‘early warning indicators’ for the kharif crop (sowing June to August) which are looked for at this time of the year. They are: (1) delay in the onset of South-West monsoon, (2) long ‘break’ activity of the monsoon, (3) insufficient rains during June and July, (4) rise in the price of fodder, (5) absence of rising trend in the water levels of the major reservoirs, (6) drying up of sources of rural drinking water, (7) declining trend in the progress of sowing over successive weeks compared to corresponding figures for ‘normal years’.
On this list, points 1 and 2 are true, 3 is true for June and July until now, 4 and 5 are true, we have insufficient information for 6 and 7 but from mid-May there have been a number of media reports on water scarcity in the districts of peninsular, central and northern India. Thus the state of the ‘early warning’ indicators taken together have triggered the issuing of the government’s drought crisis management plan. Please read the rest at the India Climate Portal.
From late July through August, Pakistan received excessive monsoon rainfall across the country including many of the major rice and cotton growing areas. The extraordinary rainfall triggered severe overland and river flooding. The impact of the floodwater is most severe in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (NWFP), Baluchistan, Punjab, and the northern districts of Sindh. These provinces have suffered significant loss of cropland and damage to agricultural infrastructure. The major kharif season (June-November) crops are rice and cotton, but a substantial amount of corn, millet, and sorghum is grown during the kharif season as well.
The floodwaters are receding in the mid- and upper-reaches of the Indus Valley but continue to expand in the southern district of Sindh. The final extent of the floodwaters and the resulting damage to crops is still uncertain. The USDA has made a preliminary assessment, based primarily on satellite imagery, which indicates significant crop damage in major rice and cotton areas along the Indus River in Punjab and Sindh provinces.
The USDA forecasts 2010-11 Pakistan rice production at 5.3 million tons, down 19 percent from last month, and down 1.5 million or 22 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 2.4 million hectares, 14 percent down from last month, and down 0.4 million or 14 percent from last year. Yield is forecast at 3.31 tons per hectare, down 5 percent from last month and down 9 percent from last year. USDA damage estimates, based primarily on satellite imagery, indicate rice cropland losses of 400,000 hectares. The rice crop is at various development stages ranging from the early vegetative to the reproductive stage. Satellite-derived vegetative indices indicate that upland cropping areas will benefit from abundant soil moisture, where flooding did not occur.
Cotton production is forecast at 9.3 million 480-pound bales, down approximately 2 percent from last month, and down 0.3 million or 3 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.0 million hectares, 2 percent down from last month, and the same as last year. Yield is forecast at 675 kilograms per hectare, down 0.4 percent from last month and down 3 percent from last year. Analysis of satellite imagery suggests cotton cropland losses at around 200,000 hectares. The crop is at various development stages ranging from early vegetative to advanced maturity, and vegetative indices indicate that most upland cropping areas, away from the flooded areas, benefited from abundant soil moisture profiles.
Here in one convenient Excel file is the annual data from the release of Advance Estimates of crop production for India. This is from the Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, and is usually posted on the website of the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation.
The file contains the annual estimates for 1997-98 to 2006-07, two advance estimates for 2007-08 and the full four advance estimates for 2008-09 and 2009-10. The Ministry, just to make things more interesting for the toiling masses, posts the data as a grubby two-sheeter pdf image. I’ve been careful about the numbers.
These estimates are for all major crops covered by the Ministry and in rabi and kharif where applicable: rice, wheat, jowar, bajra, maize, ragi, small millets, barley, coarse cereals, cereals, tur, gram, urad, moong, pulses, kharif, rabi, groundnut, castorseed, sesamum, nigerseed, rapeseed, mustard, linseed, safflower, sunflower, soyabean, oilseeds, cotton, jute, mesta and sugarcane.