World crop estimates 2011 November – more wheat, China corn, less rice

The November data and major crop summaries from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE, US Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service) are out today. Here are the highlights:

Wheat – Global wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected 2.6 million tons higher mostly reflecting higher production in Kazakhstan and EU-27. Kazakhstan production is raised 2.0 million tons as an extended harvest period capped off a nearly ideal growing season, confirmed by the latest government reports. EU-27 production is raised 1.2 million tons with further upward revisions for France and Spain and higher reported production in the United Kingdom and Czech Republic. Partly offsetting these increases is a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Argentina and 0.3-million-ton reductions for both Algeria and Ethiopia.

World wheat trade is raised for 2011-12 with higher expected imports for China, a number of African countries, including Morocco and Algeria, as well as for Brazil and several FSU-12 countries neighboring Kazakhstan. Partly offsetting is a reduction in projected imports for South Korea where more corn feeding is expected. Exports are raised 1.0 million tons each for EU-27 and Russia reflecting larger supplies in EU-27 and the continued heavy pace of shipments from Russia.

Global wheat consumption for 2011-12 is raised 2.4 million tons with increased feeding expected for Kazakhstan, Brazil, and Serbia. Larger crops in Kazakhstan and Serbia support more wheat feeding. Recent rains in southern Brazil have reduced wheat quality in some areas raising the potential for more feeding. Higher consumption is also expected for EU-27, Ethiopia, Kenya, and several smaller FSU-12 countries. Global ending stocks are projected 0.2 million tons higher. Rising stocks in Kazakhstan, China, and Morocco are partly offset by reductions in major exporting countries including Russia, Argentina, and EU-27.

You can get the WASDE 2011 November outlook here [pdf] and the 2011 November Excel file is here [xls]. Current and historical WASDE data are here.

Coarse grain – Global coarse grain supplies for 2011-12 are projected slightly lower with reduced U.S. corn production and lower EU-27 rye production more than offsetting higher Argentina sorghum production, higher EU-27 corn, barley, oats production, and higher Kazakhstan barley production. Corn production is lowered for a number of countries with the biggest reduction for Mexico where production is lowered 3.5 million tons. A late start to the summer rainy season and an early September freeze in parts of the southern plateau corn belt reduced yields for Mexico’s summer crop. Lower expected area for the winter crop, which will be planted in November and December, also reduces 2011-12 corn production prospects. Reservoir levels are well below those necessary to sustain a normal seasonal draw down in the northwestern corn areas which normally account for 70 to 80 percent of Mexico’s winter corn crop.

Increases in 2011-12 corn production for a number of countries partly offset reductions in Mexico, the United States, and Serbia. Corn production is raised 2.5 million tons for China with increases in both area and yields in line with the latest indications from the China National Grain and Oils Information Center. EU-27 corn production is raised 1.9 million tons mostly reflecting higher reported output in France, Romania, and Austria. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons with higher expected area. FSU-12 production is raised 0.7 million tons with higher reported yields in Belarus and Russia. There are also a number of production changes this month to corn and sorghum production in Sub-Saharan Africa which reduce coarse grain production for the region.

World coarse grain trade for 2011-12 is raised with increased global imports and exports of barley and corn. Barley imports are raised for Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan with exports increased for EU-27 and Russia. Corn imports are increased for China, Mexico, and South Korea. Higher expected corn exports from Argentina and EU-27 support these increases. Higher sorghum exports from Argentina offset the reduction in expected U.S. sorghum shipments. Global corn consumption is mostly unchanged with higher industrial use and feeding in China and higher corn feeding in EU-27 and South Korea offsetting reductions in Mexico and the United States. Global corn ending stocks are projected 1.6 million tons lower with reductions in EU-27, Mexico, Brazil, and the United States outweighing increases for China and Argentina.

Rice – Global 2011-12 rice supply and use are lowered from a month ago. World 2011-12 production is forecast at a record 461.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month due mainly to decreases for Burma, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand, which are partially offset by an increase for China. Thailand’s 2011-12 rice crop is lowered nearly a million tons as losses in the main-season crop from recent flooding are partially offset by an expected re-planting of some of the main season crop in the Northern Region along with an expected record dry-season crop. Flooding also lowered crop prospects in Burma, Cambodia, and Laos. China’s 2011-12 crop is raised 2.0 million tons to a record 141.0 million, due to an increase in harvested area. Harvested area is increased based on recent indications from the government of China. The increase in global consumption is due mostly to an increase for China. Global exports are lowered slightly due to reductions for Burma and Cambodia, which are partially offset by increases for Argentina and Brazil. Global ending stocks for 2011-12 are projected at 100.6 million tons, down 0.8 million from last month, but an increase of 2.6 million from the previous year.

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Fukushima nuclear emergency, Japan

08 February 2017: A month short of six years after the 11 March Fukushima disaster began unfolding, the situation at the nuclear power plant has entered a new phase of danger, one which modern industrial civilisation has no experience with and very little knowledge about.

The highest radiation level at Fukushima is now much higher than the highest ever measured at Chernobyl, which was 300 sieverts per hour, an inconceivably high dose which can kill a person almost instantly. Radiation is usually measured in thousandths of a sievert, called millisieverts. For example, most people receive around 2.4 millisieverts per year from background radiation, or only 0.0002739726 per hour.

But a radiation level of 530 sieverts per hour has just been measured at Fukushima’s number 2 reactor. This new record at Fukushima is 70% higher than that of Chernobyl. (The highest level previously measured at Fukushima was 73 sieverts per hour, in March 2012.) The leakage of highly radioactive water has been continuing every day, a daily flow of radioactively contaminated groundwater into the ocean. The estimates are of about 300,000 litres per day of relatively low-level radioactive waste water. But there are storage tanks with 800,000 tons of highly radioactive water, as every day about 100 tons of water are poured on the three melted down cores.

18 December 2011: You will find the Updates archive, info links, video clips and pictures on the Japan emergency page.

Street lights shine in the abandoned town of Iitate, outside the 20 kilometre exclusion zone around the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant, in northeast Japan. Residents were forced to evacuate the town after radiation levels from the leaking plant exceeded those inside the exclusion zone. Nov. 20, 2011. Photo: Mainichi Daily News / AP Photo / Greg Baker

More than nine months have passed since the 11 March earthquake and tsunami that devastated northeastern Japan and triggered a still-unresolved disaster at the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant. This set of news reports, news features and editorial in the Mainichi Daily News reveals the chronic deception and criminal corporate irresponsibility that continue to hinder all meaningful effort to mitigate the meltdown, and to obstruct at all costs the truth.

Mainichi Daily News has said that the government has declared a stable “cold shutdown” at the plant, representing a major milestone in its handling of the disaster. The public has keenly waited for the nuclear reactors to be brought under stable control, but Japan is still standing on thin ice and is miles away from a situation where it can really declare that the crisis is under control.

In the meantime, rebuilding the lives of residents near the crippled plants has been an urgent critical challenge. On the occasion of its latest political declaration, the government needs to renew its resolve to settle the crisis and achieve regional recovery. The disaster-hit reactors are certainly now in a more stable condition. However, the phrase “cold shutdown” usually refers to suspension of a sound reactor. The fact that the government is attempting to apply this term in a severe accident in which three reactors have suffered core meltdowns should be called into question. The government should rather explain in detail the possibility of any additional explosions and whether a recriticality accident has been ruled out.

Police on duty at a roadblock at the edge of the 20 kilometre exclusion zone around the crippled Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant, at Namie, in northeast Japan. Nov. 20, 2011. Photo: Mainichi Daily News / AP Photo / Greg Baker

Simulations suggest that nuclear fuel has melted inside the reactor containment vessels, eroding their concrete floors. Although Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO), the operator of the stricken nuclear plant, has indicated that melted fuel has also been cooled down by water, this is nothing but speculation. We urge the utility and the government to find a way to ascertain the precise condition of the fuel.

Mainichi Daily News has reported that conditions at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant are far worse than its operator or the government has admitted, according to freelance journalist Tomohiko Suzuki, who spent more than a month working undercover at the power station. “Absolutely no progress is being made” towards the final resolution of the crisis, Suzuki told reporters at a Foreign Correspondents’ Club of Japan news conference on Dec. 15. Suzuki, 55, worked for a Toshiba Corp. subsidiary as a general laborer there from July 13 to Aug. 22, documenting sloppy repair work, companies including plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO) playing fast and loose with their workers’ radiation doses, and a marked concern for appearances over the safety of employees or the public.

An earthquake-damaged grave is seen at a cemetery in the abandoned town of Katsurao, outside the 20 kilometre exclusion zone around the Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant, in northeast Japan. The town was abandoned when radiation levels became unsafe for long term exposure. Nov. 20, 2011. Photo: Mainichi Daily News / AP Photo / Greg Baker

For example, the no-entry zones around the plant – the 20-kilometer radius exclusion zone and the extension covering most of the village of Iitate and other municipalities – have more to do with convenience that actual safety, Suzuki says. The situation at the plant itself is no better, where he says much of the work is simply “for show,” fraught with corporate jealousies and secretiveness and “completely different” from the “all-Japan” cooperative effort being presented by the government.

“Reactor makers Toshiba and Hitachi (brought in to help resolve the crisis) each have their own technology, and they don’t talk to each other. Toshiba doesn’t tell Hitachi what it’s doing, and Hitachi doesn’t tell Toshiba what it’s doing.” Meanwhile, despite there being no concrete data on the state of the reactor cores, claims by the government and TEPCO that the disaster is under control and that the reactors are on-schedule for a cold shutdown by the year’s end have promoted a breakneck work schedule, leading to shoddy repairs and habitual disregard for worker safety, he said. “Working at Fukushima is equivalent to being given an order to die,” Suzuki quoted one nuclear-related company source as saying.

At a Tokyo market, a smartphone shows radiation test results by the grower of a package of Maitake mushrooms, showing them as free of radioactive contamination. Many consumers worry about the safety of food from Fukushima and surrounding prefectures, although produce and fish found to be above government-set limits for contamination are barred from the market. Mushrooms, for example, harvested in and around Fukushima are frequently found to be contaminated and barred from the market. Sept. 12, 2011. Photo: Mainichi Daily News / AP Photo / Shizuo Kambayashi

Kenichi Oshima is currently a professor at Ritsumeikan University. After long years of nuclear power research, he had learned that the actual cost of maintaining nuclear power in Japan was twice as high as what government and electric power companies had publicly announced, the Mainichi Daily News has reported. In March 2010, published his findings in a book, but found himself under fire at a time when pro-nuclear energy was becoming even stronger. In September the same year, during a meeting of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, his comments were rejected and even mocked. “Do you call this research?” he was told and few even cared to look at his findings.

Following the nuclear disaster at the Fukushima No. 1 power plant, triggered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, Oshima’s situation drastically changed. He was selected as a member of two expert governmental committees to serve as a critical analyst of Japan’s current nuclear power stance. The group will openly release all internal debates and documents, Oshima says. He is now more optimistic than ever that the time to destroy the “cheap and safe” nuclear power myth will eventually come.

Workers in protective suits and masks wait to enter the emergency operation center at the crippled Fukushima No. 1 Nuclear Power Plant in Okuma, Japan. Nov. 12, 2011. Photo: Mainichi Daily News / AP Photo / David Guttenfelder, Pool

A sober and critical editorial in the Mainichi Daily News has said that Britain has already abandoned developing fast-breeder nuclear reactors, and is set to give up nuclear fuel reprocessing as well. Moreover, its planned construction of a facility to dispose of radioactive waste including plutonium is likely to materialize even though it is still at a planning phase.

In contrast, there are no prospects that Japan can build a disposal facility. However, for Japan to call for operations at the Monju prototype fast-breeder nuclear reactor in Fukui Prefecture and the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in the Aomori Prefecture village of Rokkasho to be carried out as planned, would be like putting the cart before the horse as it appears the country is incapable of building a disposal facility.

Plutonium is directly related to security issues. The U.K. possesses nuclear weapons but Japan does not. One may wonder whether Japan’s independence will be threatened if it abandons nuclear fuel recycling and loses its ability to produce plutonium. Even though it is an important point of contention the issue should not be used as a reason to underestimate the harm of plutonium.

Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yukio Edano who is in charge of energy policy, Goshi Hosono, state minister for handling the nuclear crisis, and Yoshito Sengoku, second-in-command in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan’s Policy Research Committee, have been hearing the views of experts on the issue. It is not enough for the government to talk only about the dream of “prosperity” built on dependence on nuclear power. Japan’s ability to overcome the mess that follows such prosperity is now being tested.

More updates, info links, video clips and pictures on the Japan emergency page.

World agri supply and demand estimates, Sep 2010

The US Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (Wasde) report is out, dated 10 September 2010. Here are the highlights of its analysis on global wheat and rice.

Wheat

Global wheat supplies for 2010-11 are projected down 0.7 million tons as higher carry-in mostly offsets a 2.7-million-ton reduction in world output. Much of the offset is explained by Canada, where beginning stocks are increased 1.5 million tons, as reported by Statistics Canada, and production is increased by 2.0 million tons. These changes mostly offset lower production in Russia and the European Union (EU) 27. Production for Russia is lowered 2.5 million tons based on the latest harvest results for the drought-affected central growing areas in the Volga and Urals Federal Districts. EU-27 production is lowered 2.4 million tons with the largest reductions for Hungary and Romania where heavy summer rains reduced yields. Smaller reductions in a number of other member countries also reduce EU-27 production. Although the reduction for Germany is small, persistent and heavy August rains have reduced supplies of high quality milling wheat. Other production changes include a 0.3-million-ton reduction for Belarus and a 0.4-million-ton increase for Morocco.

World wheat trade for 2010-11 is raised with global exports projected 1.4 million tons higher. Export shifts among countries largely reflect availability of supplies and increased competition from North America. Exports are raised 2.0 million tons for Canada and 1.4 million tons for the United States. Exports are also raised 0.5 million tons each for Iran and Kazakhstan. A 0.5-million-ton increase in Russia exports reflects larger-than-expected shipments during early August, before implementation of the export ban on August 15. These increases more than offset a 3.0-million-ton reduction for EU-27 and a 0.5-million-ton reduction for Australia. EU-27 exports are lowered with reduced supplies and increased competition from Canada. Logistical constraints are expected to limit exports from Australia.

World wheat imports for 2010-11 are raised with increases for Russia and Nigeria. Imports for Russia are raised 1.4 million tons as imports from regional suppliers support domestic usage, particularly for feeding. World wheat consumption is lowered 3.8 million tons with lower consumption in EU-27, Russia, and Kazakhstan outweighing increases for Pakistan, Canada, and Nigeria. Wheat feeding is lowered 2.0 million tons for EU-27 with imported coarse grains expected to partly replace wheat in livestock and poultry rations. Global ending stocks are projected 3.0 million tons higher with increases for EU-27, Canada, and Australia. Ending stocks are lowered for Pakistan and Russia.

Rice

Projected global 2010-11 rice supplies and use are both lowered from last month. Global rice production is projected at a record 454.6 million tons, down 4.6 million tons from last month’s estimate, mainly due to large declines for several countries including China, Indonesia, and Pakistan.

China’s 2010-11 rice crop is reduced 1.5 million tons to 136.0 million, due mainly to a decrease in the early rice crop. Both area and yield are reduced by early season drought in some areas combined with late-season flooding in other areas. Indonesia’s 2010-11 rice crop is reduced 2.0 million tons to 38.0 million, based in part on a report from the U.S. Agricultural Counselor in Jakarta. Indonesia’s 2009-10 rice crop is also reduced – a reduction of 1.7 million tons to 37.1 million. Indonesia’s yield growth has stagnated due to weather, pests, and disease problems. Pakistan’s 2010-11 rice crop is reduced by 1.2 million tons or 18 percent to 5.3 million as severe flooding lowered both area and average yield.

Global 2010-11 exports are reduced by 0.6 million tons to 31.0 million, mainly due to a reduction for Pakistan. Global consumption is lowered by nearly 2.3 million tons, mainly due to decreases for China (-0.5 million) and Indonesia (-1.35 million). Global ending stocks for 2010-11 are projected at 94.6 million tons, down 3.0 million from last month, but up slightly from 2009-10. Stocks are lowered for China, Indonesia, Vietnam, and Iran, and raised for the United States.