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Posts Tagged ‘advance estimate

India’s 259 million ton target

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Self-sufficiency or price volatility? There are choices to be made for food cultivators in India. Illustration: Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation

Self-sufficiency or price volatility? There are choices to be made for food cultivators in India. Illustration: Ministry of Drinking Water and Sanitation

Quietly, the Ministry of Agriculture has issued its first estimate for the crop year 2013-14. Food price inflation in every single state and union territory has been rising over the last four to five years, and with the furore over the WTO Ministerial Conference just over, and with promises to keep over the National Food Security Act, the big bottom-line should have been accompanied by a number of careful statements from ministries and departments concerned with cultivation and with the supply of food.

These would be the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, the Ministry of Agriculture itself, the Ministry of Food Processing Industries, the Ministry of Commerce (whose minister represented us at the WTO meeting), the Ministry of Rural Development (under which the gigantic rural employment guarantee programme now includes work on agriculture, and safeguards against leaching labour away from the fields when it is needed in those fields), and so on. But, we have a 259 million ton bottom-line number for the country for 2013-14 and there’s no elaboration of it whatsoever from any chamber of the government.

RG_2013-14_crop_targetsHere are the key numbers in million tons (with the first advance estimates, where given, in parentheses). Rice 105 (92.32), wheat 92.5, pulses (which is tur, gram, urad, moong, other rabi and kharif pulses) 19 (18.02), coarse cereals (which is jowar, bajra, maize, ragi, small millets, barley) 42.5 (43.99). To this I have added vegetables and fruit – these are for reasons I cannot fathom (but have suspicions about) still omitted from the targets and from the estimates; this happens four times a year, and they are released with a dullness and lethargy that belie the frantic scenes in the districts whenever a fair price shop is restocked. [You can get the xlsx file with the latest data here.]

Using averages of all-India production of vegetables and fruit for the last three years available (these are 2012-13, 2011-12 and 2010-11) I can supply what could serve as ‘targets’ for horticultural production as follows: vegetables 154.1 mt, fruit 76.3 mt. But, to hint at my suspicion, this is lucrative export produce and the government agency, the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), working in concert with the Ministry of Food Processing Industries, is responsible for converting our vegetables and fruit into produce shipped off in containers, or into raw material for India’s growing ‘food service’ industry (awful term, as if we needed yet another service to add to the inequitous burden of the info-tech and financial services) and the domestic organised retail trade (yes that means Walmart, Tesco, Auchan, Carrefour, Metro and who knows who else).

Written by makanaka

December 20, 2013 at 17:08

India 2012 foodgrain estimate is 257 million tons

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What is still quaintly called an “advance estimate” (the fourth of four that are released by the brobdingnagian agricultural bureaucracy in India) has been made public.

This gives us estimates of the expected production of foodgrain and commercial crops for India in 2012. As usual, the new data release adds to the series I have been providing since the 2008-09 crop year – this now includes the sequential advance estimates for 2008-09, 2009-10, 2010-11 and 2011-12. [Get the spreadsheet here.]

Highlights from this data release:
1. Rice 104.32 million tons, wheat 93.90 mt and coarse cereals 42.01 mt for a combined cereals total of 240.23 million tons. Add 17.21 mt of pulses for a total foodgrains estimate of 257.44 million tons for 2011-12.
2. A total for nine oilseeds of 30.01 million tons (groundnut, castorseed, sesamum, nigerseed, rapeseed and mustard, linseed, safflower, sunflower and soyabean). Sugarcane is 357.66 million tons. For fibres, cotton 5.98 mt, jute 1.96 mt and mesta 0.12 mt.

What about the effect of the poor 2012 monsoon on sowing and harvests, and have the drought conditions and water scarcity in over 300 districts been factored into these numbers? I don’t know. The agri and crop and food babus in India (just like ‘mandarins’ and ‘eurocrats’ elsewhere) aren’t telling.

Written by makanaka

September 24, 2012 at 15:21

India estimates 250 million tons of foodgrain for 2011-12

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India’s Ministry of Agriculture has released it ‘second advance estimates’ for the 2011-12 crop season. These estimates (usually four) are released from around September or October until the following monsoon has set in by July.

The rice target of 102 million tons (mt) is the same as it was for 2010-11. The second advance estimate for rice is 90.18 mt for ‘kharif’ (sown in monsoon, harvested in autumn), the highest ever advance estimate, and 102.75 mt in total (both ‘kharif’ and ‘rabi’, the winter crop). The second advance estimate for 2011-12 is almost 10 mt higher, for the rice kharif crop, than the second advance estimate for 2010-11. The total rice estimate for 2011-12 is more than 8 mt higher than the advance estimate for the total rice crop in 2010-11.

The 2011-12 second advance estimate for wheat is 88.31 mt, more than 4 mt above the 2011-12 target of 84 mt. The wheat second advance estimate is also more than 2 mt above the fourth advance estimate for the 2010-11 season, of 85.93 mt. Coarse cereals (jowar, bajra, maize, ragi, small millets and barley) has been since 2008-09 set targets of over 40mt – 42mt in 2008-09 (the harvest was 39.48 mt), 43.1 mt in 2009-10 (the harvest was 33.77 mt), 44 mt in 2010-11 (the harvest was 42.22 mt). The 2011-12 coarse cereals target is 42 mt and the second advance estimates for the year for coarse cereals is 42.08 mt).

Total cereals for 2011-12 is 233.14 mt in the second advance estimate, almost 10 mt above the fourth advance estimate of 2010-11 (which was 223.47), and above the 228 mt target for 2011-12. Total pulses for 2011-12 is 17.28 mt in the second advance estimate, just above the 17 mt target for the year. This is still under the 18.09 mt fourth advance estimate for the 2011-11 crop year.

[You can find a four year data set from 2008-09 onwards here (xlsx)]

Thus, total foodgrain for the 2011-12 crop year is placed at 250.42 mt in the second advance estimate, over 5 mt above the target for 2011-12 – and the first time the total foodgrain harvest has been estimated at 250 mt. In the three previous crop years total foodgrains was 241.56 mt in 2010-11, 218.20 mt in 2009-10, and 233.88 mt in 2008-09.

Written by makanaka

February 12, 2012 at 21:55