Resources Research

Making local sense of food, urban growth, population and energy

Re-indexing what 252 mt of foodgrain estimate means for India

with 3 comments

Cereals, pulses, oilseeds and the cotton-jute-cane group – these charts show how production of these major crop groups has varied relative to their maxima for the 1997-98 to 2011-12 period.

Rice 103 million tons. Wheat 90 million tons. That is the cereal base of the ‘third advance estimates’ of foodgrain production in India for 2011-12. The data has just been released by the Indian Ministry of Agriculture’s Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (it is the Directorate of Economics & Statistics which compiles and releases the numbers).

Going by the third advance estimate numbers for major crops, the rice estimate is just over the 102 mt target and the wheat estimate is 6 mt tons above. At just under 42 mt, the estimate for coarse cereals (jowar, bajra, maize, ragi, barley and small millets) is at the target level. Total cereals is 235.54 mt, about 7 mt over the target for the year. Total pulses (tur, gram, urad, moong, other kharif and other rabi) are estimated at 17 mt which is also on target. That gives India’s foodgrain an estimate of 252.56 mt for 2011-12 – it was 241.5 for 2010-11 and was 218.2 mt for 2009-10 (against a target of 239 mt).

[Here’s the data! You can get the data from these links, in the series that goes back to 1997-98 in the following formats: xlsx, xls and ods]

For commercial crops, the third advance estimates for the group of nine oilseeds (groundnut, castorseed, sesamum, nigerseed, rapeseed and mustard, linseed, safflower and soyabean) is 30 mt which is shy of the 33.6 mt target for 2011-12. In comparison, the 2010-11 target was 31.1 mt for the group of nine (target 33.2 mt). Converted to mt from bales, the advance estimate for cotton is 5.98 mt (target 5.78 mt), for jute and mesta just over 2 mt (target 2.,2 mt) and sugarcane 351 mt (target 350 mt).

This set of charts does not show how production has grown (or not) for the crops covered by the advance estimates series. Rather, it bases each crop on the maximum production recorded for the period 1997-98 to 2011-12 (the third advance estimates for this year) and shows how production of a crop in all the other years in the series matches the series maximum. This method gives us a very different view from the usual government-ministry line which tends to show (if not to provide data for) a steady upward trend.

Written by makanaka

May 5, 2012 at 15:36

3 Responses

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  1. Reblogged this on For Whatever It's Worth… and commented:
    There are lots of hidden stories in the numbers from the Agriculture sector. Government generally highlights facts only at a superficial level. In-depth analysis of crop wise agriculture data trends will reveal lot more…

    bhuwanchand

    May 5, 2012 at 16:00

    • Dear bhuwanchand. Yes the numbers say far more than what the Government of India admits to. Aggregates like this hide a lot and with 35 states and UTs, there’s a lot of hiding that is done.

      makanaka

      May 10, 2012 at 07:23

      • You are absolutely right.
        You are doing a great job with this Blog, I keep coming here often to read & learn. Keep it up. God bless you. Thank you for the reply.

        bhuwanchand

        May 10, 2012 at 10:01


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