India’s troubled 2011 monsoon continues
The India Meteorological Department, Ministry of Earth Sciences, has issued a new forecast for the 2011 south-west monsoon and the overall number does not at all look like what the country needs. The IMD has said that by the end of the second half of the 2011 monsoon, it expects the national average to be 90% or thereabouts of the long period average (called LPA by the Met).
India’s central government has only recently announced the foodgrain estimates for the year, at a record 241 million tons. The question now is, what will this lower prognosis mean at district level, and for those districts which supply the country its cereals, vegetables and commercial crops. We’ll have to wait and watch for more indicators. The main paragraphs of the IMD statement follow, and I have put together picture panels based on the rainfall maps issued by the IMD every week. These show the regional variations of rainfall and how they have moved over time.
The IMD statement is titled “Long Range Forecast Outlook for the Rainfall During the Second Half (August–September) of 2011 Southwest Monsoon” and says:
“Summary of the Forecast outlook for the Rainfall During the Second Half of the 2011 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall – Rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half (August to September) of the 2011 southwest monsoon season is likely to be below normal (86 to 94% of long period average (LPA)). Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during the period August to September, 2011 is likely to be 90% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.”
“The outlook for the 2011 Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall is that the monsoon season (June to September) rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be below normal (90-96% of LPA) as forecasted by IMD in June. The season (June to September) rainfall over the 3 geographical regions (Northwest India, Central India and South Peninsula) is also likely to be within the limits of forecasts (i.e.97% of LPA, 95% of LPA and 94% of LPA respectively all with model errors of ±8% of LPA) issued by IMD in June. However, the season rainfall over Northeast India is likely to be less than the lower limit of the IMD forecast (95 ±8% of LPA) issued in June.”
This year, the IMD’s first stage forecast was issued on 19 April 2011 and its second stage forecast was issued on 21 June 2011. For climatoligists, the IMD has also said that there are ‘ENSO Neutral conditions over Equatorial Pacific’ after the dissipation of the moderate to strong La Nina event around mid-May 2011. “The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate high probability (about 80%) for the present ENSO-neutral conditions to continue during the remaining part of the 2011 southwest monsoon season. However, the probability for re-emergence of La Nina or that for development of El Nino (10% each) is relatively less.”